Global Urea Price Forecast

Forecasts of rising urea prices on the global fertiliser market.

Several decades ago, China stated that it planned to become fully self-sufficient in urea. Since then, China has become the world’s leading producer and exporter of urea. Until recently, export volumes were around 14 million tonnes a year, roughly one third of global supply.

Recently, the Chinese government has turned its attention to environmental problems. Some measures to improve the environmental situation have already been introduced — for more detail, see our separate article on China’s Environmental Problems.
As a result, China’s urea exports currently (as of June 2018) stand at around 2–3 million tonnes a year.

urea prices

The market price of urea may also be affected by planned US sanctions targeting Iran. Such measures would remove around 2 million tonnes from the global urea market — naturally driving prices up.

At the same time, recent years have seen steady growth in demand for fertilisers overall, of around 2% per year. Energy prices are rising worldwide at the same time.

The bottom line: global experts almost unanimously forecast rising prices for urea and fertilisers overall. This will also affect the cost of derivative materials, such as Thiourea (thiocarbamide).

 

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